It examines current issues that have a bearing on the Swedish and international business cycle development, focusing on growth, and exchange and interest rates forecasts.
Excerpt from the latest report
"Global growth has proven resilient amid continued turmoil in the Middle East. Oil prices have eased from their recent highs, but volatility persists and uncertainty remains elevated. Hopes of normalisation in the region have repeatedly given way to renewed escalation, with successive rounds of attacks and retaliation. Looking ahead, we expect the global economy to continue its steady progress."
The US economy continues to expand at a healthy pace, with growth largely driven by AI-related investment and by consumer spending.
The financial markets have experienced bouts of volatility but have remained broadly supportive despite global uncertainty.
But challenges remain: 1) the situation in the Middle East, 2) the climate crisis and extreme weather, and 3) rising debt levels.
- Mattias Persson
- Chief Economist and Global Head of Swedbank Macro Research
GDP growth in 2026 in the euro area
0.9%
US 10-year government bond yield, December 2026
4.9%
Riksbank policy rate, February 2027
2.25%
No rate hikes from the Fed in 2026
Affordability has recovered markedly in the Nordics and Baltics
Our oil forecast relies on futures, suggesting lower prices ahead