It examines current issues that have a bearing on the Swedish and international business cycle development, focusing on growth, and exchange and interest rates forecasts.
Excerpt from the latest report
"The global economy has shown resilience despite increased uncertainty, but the war in the Middle East is creating new pressure on growth and inflation. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is worsening the energy situation, even though markets, somewhat paradoxically, remain relatively optimistic. At the same time, the risk of recession is increasing as the economic effects of the conflict spread."
- The war in the Middle East is driving up uncertainty and negatively impacting financial markets
- The market is characterised by high volatility and may be overly optimistic
- In the longer term, demand for oil may decline due to the green transition
- Mattias Persson
- Chief Economist and Global Head of Swedbank Macro Research
GDP growth in 2026 in euro area
0.9%
US 10-year government bond yield, Dec. 2026
4.2%
ECB to raise policy rates in June & September
50bps
Riksbank’s policy rate unchanged in 2026 and 2027
1.75%
Our forecasts rely on futures, which suggest declining oil prices ahead
Inflation in euro area in adverse scenario
8%